With the Super Four stage of Asia Cup 2025 now in full throttle, Pakistan’s campaign has taken a turn: from appearing in danger of elimination to being very much in the mix again. Their recent win over Sri Lanka has revived hopes, but many variables remain. Let’s dig into the facts, permutations, and what Pakistan must do to make the Asia Cup final. Pakistan’s journey in Asia Cup 2025 is still alive. Find out their chances of qualifying for the final with points table and scenarios.
Current Situation & Recent Turnaround
Pakistan’s hope for the Asia Cup 2025 final is not over yet. Learn about qualification chances, key matches, and updated points table.
- Pakistan’s victory over Sri Lanka by five wickets in Abu Dhabi was a timely boost. It not only gave them two points in the Super Four stage but also kept Sri Lanka out of the running.
- Post that match, Sri Lanka have effectively been eliminated from contention, leaving three real contenders: India, Bangladesh, and Pakistan.
- The current Super Four standings (after Pakistan vs Sri Lanka) are:
• India: 2 points, NRR +0.689
• Pakistan: 2 points, NRR +0.226
• Bangladesh: 2 points, NRR +0.121
• Sri Lanka: 0 points, NRR –0.590 (effectively out)
Thus, it’s now a three-way battle, and Pakistan’s door to the final is open — but narrow.
What Pakistan Needs to Do: Qualification Scenarios
To make it clean, here are the realistic paths for Pakistan:
| Scenario | What Must Happen | Notes / Risk Factors |
| If India beat Bangladesh (on Sep 24) | Pakistan vs Bangladesh (on Sep 25) becomes a virtual semi-final. Pakistan must win that match to advance. | In that case, Pakistan’s fate lies entirely in that head-to-head. |
| If Bangladesh upset India | Then Pakistan must beat Bangladesh, and also watch the India vs Sri Lanka match. If India lose to Sri Lanka, there may be a three-way tie where Net Run Rate (NRR) becomes decisive. | Pakistan will not only have to win but win big (to boost NRR) and hope for favorable results in other matches. |
| Pakistan loses to Bangladesh | Their campaign likely ends there. | Even if other results go in their favour, losing their final match severely damages their chances. |
Other notes:
- If India lose to Bangladesh, the ranking gets more complex.
- In some permutations, three teams (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh) could each finish with two wins (4 points), and then NRR will decide the two finalists.
- Sri Lanka’s elimination simplifies some permutations, but also increases pressure on the remaining matches.
- Because Pakistan’s NRR (+0.226) is currently better than Bangladesh’s (+0.121) but much less than India’s (+0.689), any close matches or huge margins will affect their chances.
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Challenges & Hurdles Ahead
- Dependence on outcomes outside their control
Pakistan cannot fully control their fate — India vs Bangladesh and India vs Sri Lanka results matter. - Net Run Rate (NRR) margin is tight
Even if they win, a narrow victory might not suffice if other teams improve their NRR significantly. - Back-to-back matches & fatigue
Bangladesh, for instance, might play two matches in 24 hours, which affects their performance. Pakistan must be ready to capitalize. - Psychological and pressure factors
Pakistan must handle the “must-win” pressure, while also watching other games. - Past performance & consistency
Their earlier loss against India (in Super Four) put them behind the curve. They needed this win vs Sri Lanka to stay alive. - External controversies & distractions
The handshake controversy (India again refusing handshake with Pakistan) adds off-field tension.
Also, PCB has drawn ICC’s attention over alleged regulatory breaches (delays, recording meetings, misinformation) which might be a distraction.
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Why This Matters
- If Pakistan manage to reach the final, it sets up the possibility of another high-profile India vs Pakistan final—a marquee clash drawing massive viewership.
- For Pakistan fans, a comeback from the brink would be a morale booster, showing resilience in a tournament where they were earlier under pressure.
- The drama of such qualification races adds spectacle to the tournament, and points to how even in pool stages, every run and every over matters.
Verdict: Yes — But with Big ‘Ifs’
So, can Pakistan still qualify for the Asia Cup 2025 final? The short answer is yes, but only if everything falls right:
- They must beat Bangladesh in their last Super Four match.
- They must hope India either lose to Bangladesh or have favourable margins in their matches.
- If a three-way tie arises, Pakistan’s NRR must hold or be superior.
- They must manage pressure, adapt to shifting scenarios, and avoid mistakes.
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In essence, Pakistan have revived their hopes, but they now walk a tightrope. One slip, one off day, or one bad over could end their journey. But in T20 cricket and in tournaments, hope often lives until the last over. Still this question is big Can Pakistan qualify for the Asia Cup 2025 final? Read about their remaining matches, NRR boost, and what they need to reach the big stage.
